2010 Melbourne Cup preview and tips

Hi guys,

Well I've agonised over this long enough. If I don't post it now I'll just start second guessing myself.

You'll notice I haven't bothered reviewing the whole field and have only looked at those I thought had a real chance at winning. So of course if I were you I'd just back all those I've left out.

Happy punting.

Rob

My cheats guide to the 2010 Melbourne Cup and field.

Executive Summary:
First of all for those not interested in wading through an opus on distance, weather, track and form for each of the favoured runners my top five are:

Harris Tweed
So You Think
Shocking
Manighar
Descarado

The favourite So You Think is at very short odds and no matter how good he is I’m not backing a horse in the Cup at under 5/1. Shocking has blown out in the odds due to a bad barrier draw, he still can win it from there but it hurts him. So take them in a trifecta and look for an each way value bet.

I can make a strong argument for any of the top five, Shocking is all class, So You Think is a freak, Manighar the best of the imports (just ahead of Americain) and Descarado ticks all the boxes as he’s a Caulfield Cup winning horse that is built to stay and loves the wet. That leaves Harris Tweed a tough in form stayer who has proven he can run the two miles and likes a wet track. At 21/1 he is great value and tops my list on that basis.

My Guide:
For anyone with five minutes to spare here’s a little bit of information setting the scene for this year’s race and a preview of the top runners with my assessment of their chances. Happy punting.

Setting the scene:
The Melbourne Cup is Australia’s premier staying race. It’s run at Flemington over 3,200 metres and is a quality handicap. Flemington is a big wide track with a long straight. The surface is somewhat of a concern as it suffered an infection of cockchafer beetles in May. The resulting damage to the root system has led to heavy criticism of the track with some likening running there to running on sand. With up to 50 mm of rain forecast before Tuesday and the turf problems the chances of the mudlarks will be greatly enhanced. Southern Hemisphere distance races are more of a sit and sprint as opposed to true staying affair but even ‘sitting’ at 50 km/h for 2,400 metres and then sprinting uphill for the next 800 metres takes a real stayer. Throw in the very wet conditions and the root damage and it will take a tough dour stayer to win this race.

Runners:
Here’s my take on what I’ve identified as the top chances in the race, my tips and my bet selections below.

1. Shocking, Barrier (24), Odds 8/1 - Won last year so can clearly handle the distance and he loves the track. Add to that he has been in fantastic form all preparation with fast finishes in the Turnbull and the Caulfield Cup which were exactly what you would want from a horse being set to run two miles. However, he is carrying 6 kg more than last year and this years field is stronger than last years was. Is he 6 kg better? Probably. Drew the absolute outside barrier which hurts. It’s not fatal as he proved last year when he won from a similar draw. However, he did that carrying no weight and this year he’s got to carry the top weight. I still think he’s a real chance – but the gloss is off him somewhat.

2. Campanologist, Barrier (19), Odds 71/1 - as my good friend Captain Dourpants says ‘this one has a hint of Crime Scene (the high priced blowout who ran second last year) about it.’ Not an out and out stayer rather a 2,400 metre horse who will try and stretch to the two miles. Hasn’t got fantastic wet track form with just the one win from three starts and has drawn a wide barrier which may force him to settle worse than mid-field. Still is some chance a place at generous odds.

3. So You Think, Barrier (3), Odds 7/2 - The best horse in Australia. Has won every race this preparation and treated his opponents with contempt in the process. Only query is that he has never run past 2,000 metres. Is bred to stay and he’s trained by the master in JB Cummings, but 7/2 is too skinny when he’s unproven over the distance. His form to date has to be respected but I can’t take odds of under 5/1 in a staying race where there is such a massive question mark over his capacity to run out the race. The history of the Cup is littered with great horses that looked the winner at the 2,400 metre mark and then failed to go the whole way. He might prove me wrong and that is why he goes in the trifecta tips but you're crazy to take 3/1 when horses which can stay such as Shocking and Harris Tweed are going at 3 to 7 times that.

4. Zipping, Barrier (16), Odds 35/1 - marvellous old nine year old still at the top of his game as his second place to SYT in this year’s Cox Plate showed. He also took out the form race of the spring in the Turnbull Stakes (beating Shocking and Shoot Out). Perhaps some query over the full 2 miles and has already had two cracks at the MC running 9th in 2008 and 4th in 2006. You bet against this champion at your peril, he’s unlikely to win but will be in my trifecta as a place.

5. Illustrious Blue, Barrier (9), odds 51/1 – a two mile specialist with two wins from two starts. No real wet track form to speak of and has not raced in Australia since arriving. Gets services of three time Cups winning Jockey Glen Boss which helps but can’t have him without seeing him.

6. Mr Medici, Barrier (5), Odds 41/1 - if it were dry I wouldn’t even look at this stayer from Hong Kong. However the heavy track brings him right into contention. He ran a fighting sixth in the Caulfield Cup and while he’s never won past 2,400 metres he seems to have the dour nature required to stay the two miles. A big odds place chance thanks to the wet conditions.

7. Shoot Out, Barrier (17), Odds 35/1 - Won the Randwick Guineas in March and then the Derby (2400 metres - beating Descarado) in April and people started to get very excited about this High Chapparal gelding. Has looked every inch the stayer with his fine place runs in the Turnbull Stakes and Cox Plate. To top it all off has not missed a place in slow conditions. His stable are super confident as are his connections - mind you they’d want to be seeing as how they paid $2.2 million for him (makes So You Think’s purchase price of $110,000 look good doesn’t it?). A genuine chance so I think the $35/1 is rather generous- even if he only runs a place you’re still getting almost 10/1.

8. Americain, Barrier (12), Odds 12/1 - the first of the imports in the betting. He’s a Northern hemisphere stayer but has had a run here winning the Geelong Cup. It was a strong field (not Caulfield Cup strong but strong nonetheless) and he sat off the pace a little and then burst through to win in the final 200 metres. A nice Cups trial. Connections opted to not race him on Mackinnon Stakes day which is surprising but then he’s a proven stayer having won out to 3km overseas so they probably don’t feel the need to knock the edges off him prior to the big one. A live chance that can handle the wet and will definitely be in my trifecta.

11. Descarado, Barrier (1), Odds 14/1 - I was very keen on this guy following his Caulfield Cup win, and still am to an extent, but having watched that race a few more times I’ve gone from red hot to simmering. He got a dream track (wet - this guy is a swimmer), dream run and dream bias (nothing was winning other than the first three round the bend) and just held off a fast finishing Shocking who got none of the above. Add to that the weight penalty for winning the Caulfield Cup and out of that race Shocking, Manighar and Harris Tweed seem the better favoured. Regardless the Caulfield Cup is the best form lead up race to the Cup and you ignore the winner of it at your peril. Add to this the predicted heavy rain and you’d be mad not to consider him a serious chance. I will have a little each way at 13/1 and he ranks highly in my trifecta considerations.

12. Harris Tweed, Barrier (13), Odds 21/1 - Harris Tweed ran fifth to Shocking in last years Melbourne Cup and meets him 4.5 kg better off this year. Often maligned as a plodding wet tracker I rate him much higher than that. He runs in top flight races and averages a place at least 40% of the time. So here you have a professional, tough stayer, who is in form, can run the distance and handles a wet track well. At almost 20/1! I can make arguments for all of my top four but none better than this guy and he’s great value. Go each way and you’ll still get better 6/1 a place (and in my opinion this is one of the runners most over the odds. I got on at 23/1 and wouldn’t be surprised to see him jump at 15/1 or lower).

13. Manighar, Barrier (20), Odds 18/1 - the second foreign horse in this list. His trainer Luca Cumani (trainer of second place getter Bauer in 2008) knows how to bring a horse to Australia and get it to run well. He ran a fast closing second to Americain over 3km earlier this year so can get the distance, and then franked that with a very nice fifth in the Caulfield Cup. By all reports he pulled up a treat after the race, has been eating well and working beautifully. Not much wet track form though handled the bog track at Caulfield as well as anything that day so I don’t think this rain will hurt him. He was a 13/1 chance until he drew the carpark in the barrier draw. As with Shocking above this hurts but isn’t a killer blow by any means – in fact the extra 5/1 just makes him more attractive in my mind.

15. Monaco Consul, Barrier (14), Odds 21/1 - won the Victoria Derby last year, and hasn’t won a race in the twelve months since. Did run a smart third in the Caulfield Cup, and at the risk of repeating myself, Caulfield Cup form is good form for the Melbourne Cup. Plus the track has been absolutely soaked and this guy loves it wet. A place chance.

16. Profound Beauty, Barrier (22), Odds 21/1 – An imported mare that ran a creditable fifth in the Melbourne Cup in 2008 so we know she can run the distance and can handle the long trip to Australia. Trained by master trainer Dermot Weld (who already has two cups to his name) she was in brilliant form before entering quarantine for the Cup with wins over 2800 metres and 2400 metres and a fine second in the Group One Irish St Leger. But I always want to see an import run in Australia before risking it. Drew a bad gate and I’m going to risk her.

19. Holberg, Barrier (10), Odds 23/1 – the second of the Darley runners and winner of the 3,200 metre Group 3 Queen Vase last year. The stable are very upbeat about his chances with the light weight but he has no wet form at all and hasn’t had a race in Australia. I’ll risk him.

20. Precedence, Barrier (15), Odds 18/1 - Bart’s second entry in the Cup. Had two good wins in the JRA Cup (2040 metres) and the Cathay Pacific Cup (2500 metres) and he has a win and a second from 2 starts at Flemington. Oddly Bart has declined to have him run on the Saturday before the Cup and 11 of Bart’s 12 winners have all run in either the Lexus or Mackinnon the Saturday prior to the Cup so that worries me. A further worry is that while he can clearly stay he has been staying in the second tier races against second tier opposition. Leave him out.

24. Maluckyday, Barrier (6), Odds 11/1 - got into the final field with a minimum weight following a very comfortable win in the Lexus. That’s the same form line as last years winner Shocking. However, Shocking had won the Group 3 Herbert Power in his lead up preparation in 2009 whereas Maluckyday has come out of much weaker company. 11/1 is a bit short for a horse looking to win the Melbourne Cup in only its ninth start, but that being said winning form is good form and with a light weight and the form Jockey of the spring on his back he has to be considered for a place in your trifecta.


Wrapping up:

Shocking/So You Think are in great form but are far too short in the odds to have a straight go on. Manighar has form and distance on his side if he was a Southern Hemisphere horse would be a 7/1 shot. I like Harris Tweed, like him a whole lot more at 21/1. I then had Descarado, Americain and Shoot Out all on the same level. But the heavy track has forced a bit of a change with Descarado getting lifted up into my top tier.

Bets -

If you’ve got $50 to play with I’d spend it this way:

(a) $20 on Harris Tweed. Ten bucks each way would net you $250 if he wins and you’d at least get back $60 if he runs a place, and

(b) $30 on a boxed trifecta - I’ve got my top five anchoring the trifecta, added two to run second and another six to come third. That’s 300 combinations. For $30 you really should be cheering right through to the end and if the right ones get up you’ll collect 10% of the total divvy (which has not been below $1,000 the last ten years and paid about $9,000 last year).

Trifecta selections are:

For first - (#1)Shocking/ (#3) So You Think/ (#13) Manighar/ (#12) Harris Tweed/ (#11) Descarado

For second - all of the above plus (#8) Americain/ (#7)Shoot Out

For third - all of the above plus (#4) Zipping/ (#24) Maluckyday/ (#15) Monaco Consul/ (#6) Mr Medici/ (#2) Campanologist

Preliminary Cup thoughts...and the early value runners

Preliminary Melbourne Cup review

Here’s an early review of the favoured runners in the Cup.

I’ll do a more in-depth look at all the runners and my thoughts on their chances following the Mackinnon, Lexus and barrier draw this Saturday. But I reckon there’s a couple that look good for a fixed odds bet before the weekend as their odds can only go down.

Shocking (9/2) - deserved Cups favourite. Won last year so can handle the distance and loves the track. Add to that he has been in fantastic form all preparation. However, is carrying 6 kilos more than last year and this years field is stronger than last years was. Is he 6 kilos better? Probably, but he’s not twice as good and 6 kilos better and the bookies are only offering half the odds he ran at last year. He was a 9/1 bet last year so I’m not going to be having any money on him at 9/2 even if he’s the horse most likely to win. At that price leave him for the trifectas.

So You Think (11/2) - the bookies wound him in tight after getting handed their arses on Cox Plate day. Too tight. Punters started to query whether SYT is Phar Lap rolled into Carbine rolled into the Diva and when no money came he was wound out to the slightly more generous odds of 11/2. Still no value here. Make no mistake this is the best horse I have ever seen run. Better than Sunline, better than Northerly, better than Makybe Diva, he’s still really only a three year old (while he’s listed as a four year old but trust me he’s not blown out four candles yet) and has won two cox plates. He’s already a WFA legend and if his owners let him keep running (he’s an entire with a very lucrative stud career ahead of him so they’d be desperately scared of him breaking down in a race) he will dominate pretty much any race he runs - with one proviso. That race should probably not be much past a mile and a quarter, mile and a half if he gets it run his own way. He was awesome winning the Cox this year, imperious even. But he did look to be struggling in the last 100 metres; I don’t know that he’ll get the 3200. He’s trained by the master in JB Cummings and owned by Dato and those two know more about horses than all us mug punters put together; but don’t forget that while Bart has won 12 Cups he’s had 78 runners, so he’s had plenty that haven’t collected the bickies too. Again at these odds I’d leave this fella for your multiples.

Americain (11/1) - the first of the imports in the betting. First up let me say I’m usually not much of a fan of the imports. It’s almost impossible to compare their form to ours here as overseas staying races are run so differently. But that being said I’m not dead set against them especially where, as with this French stayer, they have run in Australia. Americain won the Geelong Cup on 20 October (it was my son’s first birthday and I was the proud doting father glued to a horse race int he middle of the party - but what can you do it's a key lead up race) in a pretty impressive performance. He was trapped back a little when the sprint came and was forced to push through a tight gap, something foreign horses, used to their smaller fields, can be reluctant to do. Didn’t worry the horse a jot - he drove through and found the line well. The Geelong Cup has been a popular warm up run for the imports in the last decade with Bauer running a nose second in the MC following his win in 2008 and Crime Scene, Media Puzzle, and She’s Archie also using it as a tune up. I’m not in love, but I’m not dropping him yet. Let’s see how he runs on Saturday.

Descarado (13/1) - here’s one value tip at this stage. He won the 2010 Caulfield Cup beating Shocking and that’s good form (though he was aided by a sweet ride, a ridiculous track bias that day which made winning impossible for anything other than the first 3 around the bend and a bog track - this boy is a swimmer). Is not proven over the 2 miles but in my opinion you don’t need to be an out and out stayer to win the Cup. I’ll settle for a horse that can run the mile and a half and look strong over the final furlong of that race. And that’s exactly what Descarado did in the Caulfield. Gai is giving him one last hit out in the Mackinnon if he doesn’t fall over there and draws a barrier anything inside of about 15 I’d expect him to run in single figures on Tuesday. This might be one worth having a little fixed odds flutter on before the weekend.

Manighar (13/1) - the Cumanis know how to bring a horse to Australia and get it to run well, so regardless of an absence of winning Australian form he has to be respected. Was set for the Cup following a slashing second to Americain over 3000 metres in which he looked to be going far the better and likely would have won with another furlong (which by a happy coincidence is the MC distance). Then backed it up with a solid sixth in the Caulfield Cup. So distance - check. Handles Aussie conditions - check. Trainer knows how to get a horse to run here - check. Training down the house - check. Might be the other one to have a little go at each way prior to Saturday.

That’ll do for now until we know the final field the barrier draw and have had a look at the two warm up races on Saturday at which I’ll blather on about the entire field.

My marathon - an idiot's guide to how not to run 42km

Hold your hand out from around belly button. The distance from your hand down to the ground is, give or take, a metre.

Now picture 42,194 more metres stacked up on top of that.

Cover that distance and you've done a marathon.

It's one twentieth the distance from Melbourne to Sydney, three times the city to surf, 138462 feet. It's a long bloody way.

I'd never run anything like it before.

I had run a half. Did okay too - came in just on two hours. Therefore I told myself in the lead up to the full that this was good preperation. Twenty one kilometres is a big run, ergo if I can do that I could do the bigger run of forty two kilometres.

Well I now know I could but trust me a half is not proper preparation for a full.

Because it is the sheer grinding immensity of the full distance that only really strikes you as you get into the second half of it.

Let me illustrate by outlining the mental games I played. The first was breaking the course into chunks. For example at the two km (excuse the shorthand or I'll get sick of typing kilometre all the time) I told myself I only had 21/22nds to go. At the 5km mark I'd one almost an eighth of the whole thing and then I hit my two favourite markers the 6 and the 7.

See I'd been looking forward to these because I'd worked out earlier (at around the 4km if you're wondering) that at the 6km mark I would have done fully 1/7th of the total but at the 7km mark I would have done 1/6th the total. A significant advance in just 1000 metres.

But all this playing with numbers goes out the window when you hit half way. From here on in I stopped congratulating myself with each km and working out kooky little ways to make the next km go by faster.

That all seemed a little pointless when I looked back over how hard I had worked, how many steps I had taken and how much it had cost me only to realise I had to do the whole amount all over again.

I began to ignore the ultimate goal and target more obtainable goals. From 20km all I focused on was getting to 25km. From 25km it was all bout the 30km marker.

Those five hurt and it was during those five that I came closest to giving up. Especially the 28km point. Because it was when I saw that marker that I calculated that I had now covered 2 city to surfs end on end.

Idiot.

You see I then realised that regardless of how far I'd come I still had another whole city to surf to go. All the pain I was in could be halved and then added on.

Oh and a couple of hundred metres after working that out I told myself I really should factor in an allowance for distance travelled - eg that the last third would hurt more than the first two thirds and so a simple half and add wouldn't work (I finally decided on a forty percent uplift to the original 50% and came to a conclusion that the final third would leave me hurting about 70% as much again as I already did).

Nerdy idiot.

But then 'just' two kilometres along I was joined by Ros (with HP in the backpack) and the 500 metres or so the walked with me gave me a massive boost.

The remaining twelve kms was a mix of grinding pain and grim determination.

The crowd were great; though I was sorely tempted to tell people that - yes 7 kilometres to go out of 42 total is 'nearly there' but no it is not close. Seven km is a good jog for most people and when it comes on top of 35km already traveled it's fucking agony so while I appreciate your sentiment I'm not 100% with you on how you choose to express it. Luckily I was too tired to be so mean to people who were just trying to help.

Anyway cover those remaining seven kilometres I did and by the time I got to the MCG I was a little delirious, very very sore, and just quietly I was gut bustingly proud of myself.

I did it last Sunday.

It took me five hours and twenty four minutes.

I can still hardly walk but I'll be back to do another one and I'll smash five hours when I do.



Lastly if I may be so bold as to give some tips to anyone considering giving a marathon a go they'd be:

1. Do your first one on your own. It really is a journey of discovery and on your own you can take it at your own pace and fight your own battles.
2. Have a great support crew - if I hadn't had Ros and Harry cheering me on throughout the day I reckon I would have given up
3. pick an 'easy' marathon - Melbourne is relatively flat, big enough to have a good crowd and small enough to not be uncomfortable I heartily recommend it
4. do more training than I did - if nothing else you'll cover the course in less time and that can only be a good thing because,
5. you have to be prepared for a long haul of self inflicted pain, it's a little twee but 'ninety nine percent agony and one percent ecstasy' really does sum the experience up.

What's in a word

The word for today is - marriage.

Google it and you'll see about 586 million pages on the topic within less than one one hundredth of a second (and my isn't Google just a tad smug the way it tells you how gosh darn fast it works).

The first hit is good old Wikipedia which tells me that Marriage is a social and legal institution that creates kinship. And that it does.

With one fell swoop of a pen and an 'I do' on this day nine years ago I had myself a whole 'nother family. Which considering I had spent years coming up with excuses in order to avoid my existing extended kin was a little silly wasn't it. At this point I think it is worth noting that none of those of my existing kin who might be reading this would have been the ones I tried to avoid - you I love.

It's also a public statement of your private commitment. And it's a chance to have a good party where your loved ones, and kin (as aforementioned those two categories may be, and often are, mutually exclusive) get drunk on your account.

So if it's all these things why are so many of my friends and family denied the right to do this by the State simply because the person they wish to marry shares their gender? And why am I denied the chance to get legless and heckle them during speeches (hi Belinda and Damo - forgiven me yet...no I didn't think so).

On any given day it seems a little silly to me, but on this day when I get to proudly declare it's my wedding anniversary it seems like a bloody travesty.