Preliminary Cup thoughts...and the early value runners

Preliminary Melbourne Cup review

Here’s an early review of the favoured runners in the Cup.

I’ll do a more in-depth look at all the runners and my thoughts on their chances following the Mackinnon, Lexus and barrier draw this Saturday. But I reckon there’s a couple that look good for a fixed odds bet before the weekend as their odds can only go down.

Shocking (9/2) - deserved Cups favourite. Won last year so can handle the distance and loves the track. Add to that he has been in fantastic form all preparation. However, is carrying 6 kilos more than last year and this years field is stronger than last years was. Is he 6 kilos better? Probably, but he’s not twice as good and 6 kilos better and the bookies are only offering half the odds he ran at last year. He was a 9/1 bet last year so I’m not going to be having any money on him at 9/2 even if he’s the horse most likely to win. At that price leave him for the trifectas.

So You Think (11/2) - the bookies wound him in tight after getting handed their arses on Cox Plate day. Too tight. Punters started to query whether SYT is Phar Lap rolled into Carbine rolled into the Diva and when no money came he was wound out to the slightly more generous odds of 11/2. Still no value here. Make no mistake this is the best horse I have ever seen run. Better than Sunline, better than Northerly, better than Makybe Diva, he’s still really only a three year old (while he’s listed as a four year old but trust me he’s not blown out four candles yet) and has won two cox plates. He’s already a WFA legend and if his owners let him keep running (he’s an entire with a very lucrative stud career ahead of him so they’d be desperately scared of him breaking down in a race) he will dominate pretty much any race he runs - with one proviso. That race should probably not be much past a mile and a quarter, mile and a half if he gets it run his own way. He was awesome winning the Cox this year, imperious even. But he did look to be struggling in the last 100 metres; I don’t know that he’ll get the 3200. He’s trained by the master in JB Cummings and owned by Dato and those two know more about horses than all us mug punters put together; but don’t forget that while Bart has won 12 Cups he’s had 78 runners, so he’s had plenty that haven’t collected the bickies too. Again at these odds I’d leave this fella for your multiples.

Americain (11/1) - the first of the imports in the betting. First up let me say I’m usually not much of a fan of the imports. It’s almost impossible to compare their form to ours here as overseas staying races are run so differently. But that being said I’m not dead set against them especially where, as with this French stayer, they have run in Australia. Americain won the Geelong Cup on 20 October (it was my son’s first birthday and I was the proud doting father glued to a horse race int he middle of the party - but what can you do it's a key lead up race) in a pretty impressive performance. He was trapped back a little when the sprint came and was forced to push through a tight gap, something foreign horses, used to their smaller fields, can be reluctant to do. Didn’t worry the horse a jot - he drove through and found the line well. The Geelong Cup has been a popular warm up run for the imports in the last decade with Bauer running a nose second in the MC following his win in 2008 and Crime Scene, Media Puzzle, and She’s Archie also using it as a tune up. I’m not in love, but I’m not dropping him yet. Let’s see how he runs on Saturday.

Descarado (13/1) - here’s one value tip at this stage. He won the 2010 Caulfield Cup beating Shocking and that’s good form (though he was aided by a sweet ride, a ridiculous track bias that day which made winning impossible for anything other than the first 3 around the bend and a bog track - this boy is a swimmer). Is not proven over the 2 miles but in my opinion you don’t need to be an out and out stayer to win the Cup. I’ll settle for a horse that can run the mile and a half and look strong over the final furlong of that race. And that’s exactly what Descarado did in the Caulfield. Gai is giving him one last hit out in the Mackinnon if he doesn’t fall over there and draws a barrier anything inside of about 15 I’d expect him to run in single figures on Tuesday. This might be one worth having a little fixed odds flutter on before the weekend.

Manighar (13/1) - the Cumanis know how to bring a horse to Australia and get it to run well, so regardless of an absence of winning Australian form he has to be respected. Was set for the Cup following a slashing second to Americain over 3000 metres in which he looked to be going far the better and likely would have won with another furlong (which by a happy coincidence is the MC distance). Then backed it up with a solid sixth in the Caulfield Cup. So distance - check. Handles Aussie conditions - check. Trainer knows how to get a horse to run here - check. Training down the house - check. Might be the other one to have a little go at each way prior to Saturday.

That’ll do for now until we know the final field the barrier draw and have had a look at the two warm up races on Saturday at which I’ll blather on about the entire field.